As we enter the fourth 12 months of dwelling with COVID-19, we’re all asking the predictable query: When will the pandemic be over?
To reply this query, it is value reminding ourselves {that a} pandemic includes the worldwide unfold of a illness that requires an emergency response at a world degree.
This week, World Well being Group director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared COVID continues to be a public well being emergency of worldwide concern.
As Dr Ghebreyesus notes, we nonetheless face important challenges, with excessive charges of transmission in lots of international locations, the chance of a game-changing new variant ever current, and an unknown impression of extended COVID.
But the COVID pandemic “fatigue” means it is harder to reach people with public well being messaging, whereas misinformation continues to flow into.
As well as, many international locations have deprioritized COVID testing and surveillance, so we do not have correct knowledge in regards to the extent of transmission.
However whereas we’re nonetheless within the emergency section of our COVID response, three years after the unique declaration, the WHO additionally acknowledged we’re at a transition level. This implies we’re transferring in direction of the “illness management” section of our response to COVID and studying to reside with the virus.
Transferring on
Transferring out of the emergency response section for COVID doesn’t suggest ignoring COVID or returning to precisely what our lives regarded like earlier than March 2020. Relatively, we have to be taught to coexist with COVID.
Residing with COVID means making use of applicable prevention and management measures for COVID as we go about our lives. That is what we do for different infectious ailments, together with different respiratory ailments.
The simplest factor we will do to scale back the chance of COVID is to be updated with our vaccinations and boosters.
COVID vaccines do not utterly cease transmission, however they do greatly reduced your probability of changing into critically unwell.
We will additionally cut back the probability of spreading COVID by masking up in high-risk settings, socializing in well-ventilated areas, and staying away from others when unwell.
Residing with COVID additionally includes authorities persevering with with public well being actions to watch illness transmission and to stop, management and reply to infections.
Dangers have shifted
We have entered the transition section as a result of the chance related to COVID has shifted.
Due to protected and efficient vaccines, together with excessive ranges of prior an infection, we’ve elevated immunity on the inhabitants degree and COVID an infection is less likely to result in extreme illness.
This, mixed with the emergence of less virulent variants (for now) and the addition of various efficient treatment choices, has decreased the general risk COVID poses to well being.
The place we’re in now could be very completely different to the place we have been at the start of the pandemic.
One of many important traits of this transition section of the pandemic is a shift in direction of a risk-based method to COVID.
The main focus of public well being interventions shall be to focus on essentially the most weak to COVID locally.
This implies guaranteeing older age teams, these with underlying well being situations and others at elevated threat of extreme outcomes from COVID, are adequately protected.
What would possibly get in the way in which?
A clean path by this transition section and into the following section is reliant on persevering with to keep up a excessive degree of inhabitants immunity general.
One of many largest challenges is how you can promote the uptake of vaccines because the perceived risk of COVID fades.
The problem in guaranteeing a excessive uptake of boosters is a worldwide drawback. Waning immunitywhich could possibly be topped up with further vaccine doses, stays a major concern and we have to discover higher methods to handle this difficulty.
The principle problem for well being authorities proper now’s to acknowledge the discount within the threat that COVID poses whereas guaranteeing folks don’t change into complacent and utterly ignore COVID.
Well being authorities are additionally propping up very drained and stretched well being techniques.
When will it finish?
The WHO’s recognition that we’re getting into a transition section of the pandemic means we’re one step nearer to the tip of the pandemic.
However whereas pandemics start with a bang, they do not finish that method.
Pandemics fade as people and populations progressively return to dwelling their lives in a extra “regular” method as their threat adjustments.
This may be extremely messy, with international locations transitioning out of the emergency response section of the pandemic at completely different instances.
So the pandemic is not over, however an finish is in sight. 
Hassan Vallyaffiliate professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University
This text is republished from The Conversation below a Artistic Commons license. Learn the original article.
