NBN Co noticed its whole variety of HFC subscribers fall by nearly 5700 via the again of 2022, regardless of there being no apparent improve path or alternative choice.
The losses account for a really small proportion of the HFC subscriber base – about 0.2 of a single p.c – however signify an uncommon knowledge level in the latest statistics released by the ACCC.
It is also vital as a result of it disrupts what had been 22 quarters of consecutive progress within the HFC companies in operation (SIOs) quantity, relationship proper again to HFC’s introduction into the multi-technology combine.
Because the ACCC first began counting HFC SIOs in December 2016, the quantity has all the time gone up quarter on quarter.
That modified within the third quarter of calendar yr 2022, which ended with a web discount of 1229 companies. Within the remaining quarter, one other 4450 HFC customers left – for a complete of 5689.
Some SIO losses to be anticipated
Declines within the variety of energetic companies in different entry know-how footprints are to be anticipated as a result of there are a number of NBN and non-NBN improve paths being supplied.
That is most obvious within the fibre-to-the-node/basement/curb (FTTN/B/C) footprints, the place subscribers are beginning to be supplied upgrades to full fibre.
A decline within the variety of FTTN/B/C customers – and a corresponding rise in FTTP customers – factors to the operation of that improve program, generally known as ‘fibre join’, even when calculating the precise variety of upgrades is an inexact science.
Likewise, reductions within the variety of wi-fi and satellite tv for pc customers – down 2259 and 3809 respectively within the three months to December 31 – could possibly be attributable to churn to Starlink or mobile 5G fastened wi-fi, or within the case of some satellite tv for pc customers, a transition into the NBN fixed wireless footprint.
The lack of HFC subscribers seems to interrupt with that sample, as a result of there isn’t any apparent – extra enticing – various service being marketed at HFC customers emigrate to.
The HFC footprint is technically as much as gigabit-capable. Whereas some subscribers have traditionally skilled usability points attributable to dropouts, this is not a brand new concern, so it is unlikely to all of the sudden tip 5700 customers over the sting.
Low-tier exodus?
One believable clarification – which iTnews couldn’t verify, though the ACCC numbers seem to help – is that HFC customers which are migrating away from the NBN had been subscribed to the bottom tier of 12/1Mbps.
NBN Co has lengthy sought to discourage the sale of 12Mbps companies for web use, and these are a chief cohort for migration to off-net alternate options akin to mobile fastened wi-fi.
An evaluation of the ACCC numbers reveals some giant underlying quarter-on-quarter modifications inside the HFC footprint.
These embody what seems to be like a large-scale downgrade of customers from 250/25Mbps to 100/20Mbps on the high finish; on the reverse finish, nearly 20,000 HFC customers bailed out of the 12/1Mbps tier, however there have been solely round 10,000 additions to 25/5Mbps and 50/20Mbps.
That would seem to point {that a} cohort of 12/1Mbps subscribers on HFC exited the NBN altogether.
Predicting a rebound
iTnews engaged NBN Co on this evaluation of HFC numbers and sought suggestions on a variety of attainable explanations and situations, nevertheless no believable concept was confirmed or supplied.
Because the SIO losses occurred within the again half of calendar yr 2022, and are of a comparatively small quantum, it’s attainable they could possibly be reversed at first of 2023.
The ACCC knowledge to point out that will not be printed for nearly three months – and whereas NBN Co would have precise year-to-date numbers, it didn’t share them, however expressed confidence of a turnaround.
“We count on a bounce again within the March quarter as there’s already been sturdy progress in January and February,” an NBN Co spokesperson informed iTnews.
