This column begins within the tiniest of German villages, discusses the enterprise mannequin of Germany, touches on large geopolitical challenges, throws in a photograph of Greta Thunberg, mentions Vladimir Putin, begs you to think about the setting as a world system, and makes a plea (with a giant fats asterisk) to proceed burning Australian coal to decelerate international warming.
Buckle up.
Within the very West of Germany, solely 20km from the Netherlands, lies Luetzerath. It is an obscure and tiny settlement.
No person ever cared about it – till not too long ago that’s. Luetzerath simply occurs to be proper subsequent to an open-cut coal mine, a lignite (aka brown coal) mine to be exact.
That is the worst doable coal to burn. Very polluting.
No shock that tens of hundreds of local weather activists are presently very actively blocking the demolition of the few dwellings that make up Luetzerath.
Huge and extended clashes with the police drew large media consideration and attracted the who’s who of the worldwide environmental motion.
From an environmental standpoint, the scenario is easy. The dirtiest and least environment friendly sort of coal ought to keep within the floor. The German Greens and German Labor (SPD) who’re a part of a governing coalition promised of their election campaigns that coal mines weren’t going to be prolonged.
For a few years everybody in Germany agreed. The nation way back instigated its Energiewende (power transition) below Chancellor Angela Merkel (a conservative politician and skilled chemist).
This program managed the transition to a low carbon, environmentally sound, dependable, protected (nuclear power is presently being phased out too), and inexpensive power provide. The plan to decrease emissions relied closely on low-cost, dependable pure gasoline flows from Russia.
I believe you understand the place the story takes us now.
Pipelines and pipedreams
Putin began a conflict in Ukraine. Putin was shocked that Ukrainian forces and NATO opposed him. Putin thought Germany would argue in his favor on the worldwide stage.
In any case, the extraordinarily energy-intensive German economic system is dependent upon low-cost and dependable power. Germany additionally simply sunk a bucketload of cash right into a shiny new pipeline to Russia.
Seems the German parliament was keen to threat the nation’s prosperity to face as much as Putin in spite of everything.
As soon as Putin realized the Germans have been severe the shiny new pipeline mysteriously blew up.
Anyway, the Germans want tons of recent power, they usually want it quick. European nations and the US helped to fill the hole, however Germany must rethink its power coverage now.
Power safety in Germany is about extra than simply guaranteeing that individuals have cozy properties in winter. It is about guaranteeing that the entire enterprise mannequin of Germany continues to work.
Germany produces costly equipment, supplies, chemical substances, autos, and steel merchandise. Germany’s international competitiveness depends on comparatively low-cost energy.
No marvel then, that Germany considers soiled lignite coal a viable power supply – for now. Nationwide prosperity (and for that matter political and societal stability) is dependent upon the nation’s continued prosperity.
The Luetzerath lignite deposits cannot be accessed instantly however solely in about three years, so it isn’t a fast repair in any case.
How ought to Germany feed its large demand for dependable baseload energy?
Russian gasoline was the right answer however will not ever come again. Will Germans embrace nuclear power? Contemplating the sturdy anti-nuclear motion within the 1990s my guess might be not.
What the Germans are doing as a substitute is constructing LNG terminals to move gasoline in from Qatar and anybody keen to promote; and naturally, to proceed burning coal. Power safety trumps Energiewende .
The continued reliance on coal is not only a German concern, it is a international systemic power concern.
The Worldwide Power Company (IEA) reported that the world noticed peak coal in 2022. The longitudinal information used within the charts under stops at 2021 at this stage.
We see that international coal utilization has roughly stabilized over the past decade regardless of international power demand going up.
Peak coal’s timetable
We’re consuming extra power globally due to human inhabitants development and elevated prosperity.
As I wrote previously, human inhabitants will peak within the subsequent 40 to 60 years. We’ll proceed to extend the residing requirements of many people previous that mark.
Relying on how briskly we decarbonise our power manufacturing, peak power utilization will happen someplace round that date. The IEA even argued that international power demand may peak as early because the 2040s.
Coal should be seen as a transitional supply of power; we want it now however will wish to part it out ultimately. The speedy aim should be to eliminate essentially the most polluting type of coal first, that features the lignite in Luetzerath.
Lignite makes up solely about seven % of worldwide coal use however a whopping 40 % of German coal use. The Germans will solely have the ability to depart their lignite untouched in the event that they get a steady power provide for an excellent worth and with out the political problems.
The plan to make use of Russia as such a supply spectacularly backfired.
Is that this the place Australia, the world’s fourth-largest coal producer (after China, India, and the US when you puzzled…), rides in like a knight in shining armor to save lots of the day?
Annoyingly, the German lignite energy crops cannot be simply or cheaply retrofitted to burn bituminous coal.
Planet-friendlier black coal
So, it isn’t only a easy matter of sending the Germans our comparatively clear bituminous coal and telling them to go away Luetzerath alone.
Sending the Germans our Australian lignite makes no environmental or financial sense for the Germans however is perhaps extra digestible politically.
Both method, Germany has liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) terminals and Australia can also be the world’s fourth-largest LNG exporter (after Qatar, Malaysia, and the US). Australia may very well be enjoying a extra essential position in German power affairs.
If we view international power consumption because the interconnected international system that it’s, we should always most urgently part out lignite and maintain burning bituminous coal till sufficient different energy sources come on-line to eliminate coal.
Within the German case, Australia may assist although LNG exports. Within the case of China and India (35 % of the worldwide inhabitants), Australian coal can counterintuitively have a optimistic impression on emissions.
Each nations will see elevated power calls for, they usually presently burn important quantities of lignite (in China six % of coal utilization; in India 13 %).
Australia can play a task in serving to to part our lignite energy crops by offering bituminous coal as a transitory power supply.
In a previous column I described the pragmatic Norwegian method to combating local weather change. If, however provided that, managed accurately on a world scale Australian coal may be a part of a practical however very unsexy answer to reducing international emissions.
Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher is a co-founder of The Demographics Group. His columns, media commentary and public talking deal with present socio-demographic developments and the way these impression Australia. Comply with Simon on Twitter or LinkedIn for each day information insights in brief format.
